DRY COMMODITY Trends

Dry Commodity Trends - April 26, 2024

Sugar

• Offered price levels for the balance of calendar year 2024 remain mostly steady, with modest trading reported by vendors over the past week
• The USDA reported that sugar beet planting in the four largest producing states was 26% complete as of April 21, up 6% from the prior week, and above the five-year average of 19%
• The USDA reported that the Louisiana sugar cane crop was 50% good-to-excellent as of April 21, down from 56% the prior week, and the lowest rating for that date since 2018
• The USDA lowered its 2023/2024 beet production estimate on its April supply/demand report, but increased tariff rate quota and high-tier imports resulted in a slightly larger ending stocks projection
• The USDA estimates that 2023/2024 sugar imports from Mexico will be 498,644 short tons, raw value, down 167,000 tons, or 25%, from March, and down 657,000 tons, or 57%, from 2022/2023
• The spot global and domestic sugar futures contracts both moved lower over the past week, with the spot global sugar contract trading down to a one-year low, due to improved production out of Brazil, according to analysts

Dry Beans

• Dry bean end users are currently filling in Q3 coverage now, according to this week’s updates from cash dealers. They report that product availability is “adequate” for most varieties, as we are now well into the planting season
• USDA weekly cash prices are still below last year’s levels for the spot position on several dry bean varieties

Rice

• New bookings of milled and industrial rice have maintained a steady pace over the last several weeks, according to cash traders
• According to Reuters, Indonesian state purchasing agency Bulog is believed to have purchased about 300,000 metric tons of rice on an international tender late last week, European traders said on Monday. Traders said the rice will be sourced from Vietnam, Thailand, Pakistan and Myanmar.
• The USDA increased its total rice ending stocks estimate to 43.5 million cwt. in its April supply/demand report, up from 41.5 million in its March report
• The spot domestic rice futures contract moved higher this week, and has now rallied 20% since April 3

FLOUR

• The wheat markets were higher through Wednesday of this week vs. the prior week
• The spot Kansas City wheat futures traded up to their highest level since early February this week
• The USDA raised its 2023/2024 all-wheat ending stocks projection by 25 million bushels on its April supply/demand report to 698 million
• Historically, the wheat markets have been steady to higher during April and May, which are the primary growing months for the winter wheat crop, according to analysts
• The USDA reported the winter wheat crop at 50% good-to-excellent this week, down from 55% last week, but still sharply higher than the 26% rating last year at this time
• Dry weather conditions have been reported in Kansas, a top U.S. winter wheat producer, and Russian winter wheat areas have turned drier as well, according to analysts
• Domestic winter wheat basis offers were steady this week, and are currently at a modest discount to values posted last year at this time