COMMODITY OIL TRENDS

SOY, CANOLA & PALM OIL Trends - April 26, 2024

SOY OIL

Soybean oil futures were slightly higher on Wednesday, compared to Wednesday of the prior week.

Reported market drivers:

• The U.S. soybean crop is 8% planted, up from 3% last week, and ahead of the five-year average of 4%, according to analysts
• The Brazilian soybean harvest is wrapping up, while the Argentine harvest is 15-20% complete, according to analysts
• The USDA raised its estimate of 2023/2024 soybean ending stocks to 340 million bushels on its April report, up from 315 million in March, and raised its estimate of soybean oil stocks by 45 million pounds
• The National Oilseed Processors Association estimated end-of-March domestic soybean oil stocks at 1.851 billion pounds, which is above the average trade estimate, and is up from 1.690 billion in February
• Soybean oil’s spot share of product value has continued to trade below 40%, while domestic soybean crush margins continued to improve from the recent lows
• Alternative feedstocks for renewable diesel use continue to trade at a discount to soybean oil  
• U.S. crude and refined soybean oil basis offers continue to be weak, as domestic soybean oil supplies have historically peaked during the month of April
• WTI crude oil futures are well off of their recent highs, which has provided some headwinds for soybean oil prices, according to analysts

CANOLA

• The spot canola seed futures were slightly higher this week, following the lead of the soybean complex
• Canola oil basis offers were unchanged this week, and remain at a slight premium to refined soybean oil
• U.S. demand for Canadian canola oil remains steady for both food and fuel use, according to analysts.

PALM OIL

• The palm oil futures market was steady through Wednesday of this week vs. the prior week, after having declined roughly 7% from April 4 through April 19
• Palm oil’s seasonal production cycle turned higher at the beginning of April
• The Malaysian Palm Oil Board estimated that end-of-March palm oil stocks were 1.715 million metric tons, down from 1.920 million in February, but still above the 1.673 million posted in March 2023

Mayo & Margarine

• The soybean oil and palm oil were steady to slightly higher this week, while butter prices were higher