DRY COMMODITY Trends

Dry Commodity Trends - June 28, 2024

Sugar

• Offered price levels for the balance of calendar year 2024 remain unchanged, with increased trading volumes reported by vendors over the past week
• The USDA lowered its 2024/2025 domestic sugar production estimate in its June supply/demand report, lowering the ending stocks-to-use ratio back down to 11.5%
• The International Sugar Organization raised its 2023/2024 global sugar deficit forecast by 328%, to 2.954 million tons, up from its prior forecast of 689,000 tons in February
• Both domestic and global sugar futures have continued to trade above their May lows

Dry Beans

• Dry bean end users have completed Q3 coverage and are seeking offers for Q4, according to this week’s updates from cash dealers, who report that early crop conditions remain mostly favorable
• Cash dealers report continued steady demand from Mexico, as drought has affected production there
• The planting cycle for all dry bean varieties is mostly complete now across the nation, according to analysts
• USDA weekly cash prices are below last year’s levels for the spot position on several dry bean varieties, unchanged from last week

Rice

• New bookings of milled and industrial rice picked up this week for coverage into Q4, according to cash traders
• The USDA lowered its 2024/2025 ending stocks estimate in its June supply/demand report by 1.0 million cwt., to 44.5 million, which is still 12% above last year at this time
• The spot domestic rice futures contract is down 5% from the April high

FLOUR

• The wheat markets were lower through Wednesday of this week vs. the prior week
• The spot Kansas City wheat futures have declined 23% from the May high
• Most analysts estimate that Russian winter wheat production for 2024 will range between 79 million and 82 million metric tons, down from 91.5 million last year
• The USDA reported the winter wheat crop at 52% good-to-excellent this week, up from 49% last week, but still higher than the 40% rating last year at this time
• The U.S. winter wheat harvest is now nearing 40% complete, as dry weather has aided progress, according to analysts
• Domestic winter wheat basis offers have remained mostly steady over the last three weeks, and are in line with levels from last year at this time, according to analysts